Stock Option Advisory

Greenspan – Recession – Stock Option Investing

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned recently the U.S. economy’s next phase is recessionary. Mr. Greenspan did not specify when a recession might occur, but indicated it could be as early as the end of 2007.

The economy behaves in a cyclical manner: expansion, peak, contraction (recession) and trough. For example, if the last economic phase experienced is expansion, then the next phase is peak, followed by contraction, etc. So Mr. Greenspan’s comments aren’t so surprising, it’s kind of like saying “sunset follows sunrise”, it always happens that way. In the case of sunset/sunrise we know the timing of the event, but in the case of the economy, we don’t know the timing.

So what’s an investor to do about Mr. Greenspan’s comments? One solution is to simply exit the stock market, but it could be several years until we experience the next economic expansionary phase. We can take some solace in the fact there’s always a bull market somewhere, even in a recession.

We analyzed all of the optionable stocks during the most recent economic contraction to determine the ones performing well and the ones performing poorly during the recessionary period. The following table lists the various sectors of the economy and the percentage of companies performing well in the sector during the most recent economic recession:

Sector Performance During Recession
Sector %
Success
Sector %
Success
Financial 74% Healthcare 49%
Utilities 65% Services 48%
Basic Materials 62% Conglomerates 44%
Consumer Goods 54% Technology 16%
Industrial Goods 51% . .

From this table, it appears the companies to consider investing in during an economic recession are Financial, Utilities and Basic Materials. The sectors to consider avoiding during an economic recession are: Technology and Conglomerates.

The list of financial sector companies we found to have performed reasonably well during the previous economic recession are shown below.

Financial Companies Performing Reasonably Well in Recession
AB BBX CFR FCFS HRH MFA PL SIGI WABC
ABK BDN CLI FED HRP MFC PLD SJT WB
ACAS BEN CNB FHN HST MLS PMI SLM WBS
ACE BER CORS FII IFIN MRBK PNC SNV WDR
ACGL BKUNA CSH FITB IMH MTB PRE SOV WFC
AF BLK CUZ FMT IPCR NARA PSA SPG WFSL
AFL BOH CYN FNFG JEF NCC PVTB STA WHI
AHM BPFH DDR FNM JNC NDE PXT TCB WL
AHR BPOP DFG FRE JOE NEW RDN TCO WM
AIV BPT DRE GBCI KEY NFI RE TGIC WRE
AJG BRE DRL GGP KIM NLY REG TMA WRI
ALD BRO DSL HBAN LEH NPBC RF TMK WRLD
ALL BSC ENN HCBK LFG NXL RJF TSFG WTNY
AMG BXP EPR HCC LM NYB RNR UB WXH
ARE BXS EQR HCN LRY OFG RWT UBSI XL
ASA C ESS HCP LTR ORI RY UCBH  
ASBC CBH EV HGT MAA PBCT RYN UDR  
ASN CBSS EWBC HIW MAC PBT SAF UHCO  
AVB CEI FAF HME MAFB PCL SCT USB  
BAC CFC FBP HOT MBI PEI SFG VLY  
BBT CFFN FBR HPT MCY PGR SFI VNO  

It should be noted some of the companies in the list of financial companies haven’t performed very well lately, for example NFI and DRL.

The list of utility sector companies we found to have performed reasonably well during the previous economic recession are shown below.

Utility Companies Performing Reasonably Well in Recession
AEE D EQT GXP MDU OKE PPL SWX
ALE DTE ETR HE NFG OTTR PSD UGI
ATG EAS EXC HNP NI PEG SCG UNS
ATO ED FE IDA NST PGN SO WEC
BKH EEE FPL KMI NWN PNM SRE WTR
CEG EGN GAS KSE OGE PNW STR  

The list of basic material sector companies we found to have performed reasonably well during the previous economic recession are shown below.

Basic Material Companies Performing Reasonably Well in Recession
ACI BJS DPTR GG KMP NFX PLLL SIAL TOT
AEM BOOM DVN GIFI KWK NGAS POT SII TPP
AGU BRY EEP GMRK LUFK NL PPP SIL TTI
ALB BVN EGY GRZ LYO NX PQ SM TXCO
APA CAM ENB GW LZ NXY PTEN SMG UNT
APC CBT ENG HL MDG OII PX SRDX USU
APD CCJ EOG HLX MEOH OKS PXD SSL VGZ
ARLP CHK EPD HMY MRO OLN RDC SSRI VLO
ASH CNX EPEX HNR MUR OXY RES SU WFT
AU COG ESV HOC NBL PAA REXI SUN WG
AVD COP ETP HP NBR PAAS RGLD SWN XTO
BEXP CRK FOE HW NCX PCP RRC SXT  
BGO CRZO FTO IFNY NE PCU RTI TGA  
BHI CYT GDP IMO NEM PCZ SCHN THX  
BHP DNR GFI KGC NEU PETD SGY TLM

PowerOptions provides stock options search tools for finding potentially lucrative income producing investments. PowerOptions provides to the capability to search for stock options positions by sector/industry or remove a certain sector/industry. For example, an investor could search for just companies in the financial sector or the utility sector or in the basic materials sector.

PowerOptions provides the capability to search from a list of stocks, for example like the tables of stocks provided in this article. PowerOptions provides the capability to remove particular stocks, for example like NFI and DRL, which have not been performing very well as of late.

For more information about how to identify and research great option trades, visit the PowerOptions website. There you will find the data you need to make quick, clear, and informed decisions. You can trade knowing you have found the best investment. Also, PowerOptions will allow you, with a few quick clicks, to quickly and accurately compare trades. PowerOptions‘ premium customer support is second to none in the industry. They can be easily contacted when you need them at their toll-free number to answer customer questions. Call them now toll free at 877-992-7971.

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[tags]Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, covered call investment strategy, investment strategy, iron condor, poweroptions, stock option trading, stock options[/tags]

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