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offers many tools to help options investors find lucrative trades and develop strategies. One of the most powerful and exciting tools it offers its customers is the SmartHistoryXL back testing tool.
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This tool allows customers to test elaborate, quirky, elegantly simplistic, or any other creative theory against historical data. It is often said the past is the greatest predictor of the future, and today in the weblog we will put this theory to the test by developing a search criteria with good past performance and then identifying current using the same search criteria.
What is SmartHistoryXL?
SmartHistoryXL allows you to back test stock/option searches on data and search settings from the past. From the search results, you can evaluate the returns that would have been possible if you traded those positions on that date and held until the present, expiration or any day in between.
The purpose of this tool is to help you develop search settings based on back-testing with the hope that those search settings used today will produce option positions that will perform in a similar fashion in the future. Past results are no guarantee of future results, but you certainly have more knowledge about your choice of settings if you know how they would have performed in the past. These tools will show you how your choices performed and compare them to the market in general. You can see the returns for each of the stocks screened, on all positions, or selected positions.
Back Testing Scenario:
In the following case we used a search asking for s with some of the following criteria.
High analyst rating
Good Earnings per share growth
Positive Price to Earnings Ratio
The aim of the three items listed is to identify undervalued stocks. There is more, of course, to identifying undervalued stocks, but this is a blog entry and not a 200-page book.
Below we have the results of 4 randomly selected historical data searches using the SmartHistoryXL function.
Short Analysis of Results:
|Back Tested Covered Call
|April 5 to June15th 2007
|January 10 to March 16th 2007
|September 1 to November 17th 2006
|May 1 to July 21st 2006
With our search, we found in three of the four cases listed we did better than the S&P 500 index (SPX) and the NASDAQ 100 index (). In the case where our search didn't do as well, we still would have potentially earned 4%.
In addition, over 80% of the trades identified returned at least some profit in the back tested scenarios listed.
Looking Ahead with this Scenario:
Next, we ran the search with discount stop smoking
our SmartSearchXL engine. It yielded some interesting results. All of the September listed below have 67 days until expiration. In the spirit of brevity, we parsed the list to only include the top 4 candidates. A brief profile on each of the companies returned is included below.
|Covered Call Search
||07 SEP 15. 0 (67)
|Christopher & Banks Corp.
||07 SEP 17. 5 (67)
||9. Discount stop smoking 2
|stein mart inc.
||07 SEP 12. 5 (67)
||07 SEP 75. 0 (67)
(For more details click the ticker symbol above)
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Competitors for DIVX include: Apple Inc. () discount stop smoking
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Competitors for CBK include: AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (), Charming Shoppes Inc. (), and The Talbots Inc. ().
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