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The real estate market and the homebuilders in particular have been enjoying a big party over the last few years as a result of interest rates being at historic low levels. Low interest rates allow more buyers to purchase a home, thereby increasing demand and price. The low interest rate environment also spurs the real estate market on as speculators enter the real estate market with the intent of flipping properties and making a tidy profit. But with the economy improving and the U. S. Federal Reserve increasing short-term interest rates, interest rates in general have risen in the last few months taking the life out of the real estate party. Speculator flipping has flopped and homebuilders in particular have been hit very hard by the increase in interest rates. As to when the home building market makes a recovery back to its high flying days will be left to the people with crystal balls. But in the short term, a savvy investor can potentially make a profit as a result of the homebuilder's pain. We will analyze taking positions in positions on homebuilder stocks. Using new SmartHistoryXL tool, we selected positions for homebuilders on August 21, 2006 with all expiring on September 15, 2006 (September options expiration day). The parameters used for the search were: probability of success greater then 70%, percent return greater than 2%, results sorted from highest to lowest by probability and sectors/industry set for residential construction. The results of the back test analysis are shown below:

Results for Bear-Call Credit Spread search on August 21
Stock Sym Stock Price 8-21-06 Short Opt Strike &Mo. Short Opt. Short Opt Bid Long Opt Strike &Mo. Long Opt Long Opt Ask Net Credit Stock Price 9-15-06 % Ret.
SPF 23. 36 06 SEP 25 SPFIE 0. 50 06 SEP 30 SPFIF 0. 05 0. 45 24. 20 9. 90
WLT 50. 52 06 SEP 55 WLTIK 0. 45 06 SEP 60 WLTIL 0. 15 0. 30 48. 70 6. 40
BZH 40. 55 06 SEP 45 BZHII 0. 40 06 SEP 50 BZHIJ 0. 10 0. 30 39. 60 6. 40
RYL 42. 29 06 SEP 45 RYLII 0. 90 06 SEP 50 RYLIJ 0. 20 0. 70 45. 53 4. 00
LEN 45. 23 06 order seroquel online SEP 50 LENIJ 0. 20 06 SEP 55 LENIK 0. 05 0. 15 46. 39 3. 10
CTX 49. 23 06 SEP 55 CTXIK 0. 25 06 SEP 60 CTXIL 0. 10 0. 15 53. 45 3. Order seroquel online 10
analysis simply shorting these positions would have yielded an average return of -2. 7%, but the homebuilder strategy for expiring in September of 2006 [order seroquel online] yielded an average return of +5. 5% (25 days) with a 100% success rate. As usual the pundits will be skeptical with only one month's results. The results for this strategy for expiring in June, July, and August of 2006 were +6. 8%, +8. 7%, and -9. 8%, respectively. The poor result in August was a result of having only three positions (two profitable) with one position, MTH, having a significant loss. But with an adequate stop-loss strategy this position could potentially have been exited with only a small loss. Join today, and you too can start reaping the benefits of the bear call homebuilder . provides Internet based tools for analyzing with specific search criteria and for finding potentially lucrative . For those seeking to execute a bear call spread for their personal portfolios, PowerOptions provides an Internet based search engine for finding potentially lucrative income producing bear call spread options positions. [tags]stock options, option income, investment strategy, bear call credit spreads order seroquel online, stock symbols[/tags]

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